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Energy System Modeling for Climate-neutral Transport: Aligning Italian Mobility with Eu 2030 and Fit for 55 Goals

  • Nov 19, 2025
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Abstract Book of the 6th World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming

Year: 2025

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Energy System Modeling for Climate-neutral Transport: Aligning Italian Mobility with Eu 2030 and Fit for 55 Goals

Hamid Safarzadeh, Prof. Francesco Di Maria

ABSTRACT:

The decarbonization of the transport sector is pivotal for meeting the European Union’s 2030 climate targets and the ambitions of the Fit for 55 package. This study presents a comprehensive energy system modeling approach to assess how Italy’s electric vehicle (EV) adoption and supporting infrastructure can be aligned with climate-neutral transport goals. Using a custom Python-based optimization framework inspired by the TIMES model, we simulate multiple national transport-energy scenarios for 2025–2035. The model incorporates EV uptake, hourly electricity demand profiles, battery energy storage systems (BESS), renewable energy integration, and policy constraints. Scenario analysis is used to evaluate trade-offs between cost, emissions, and grid reliability under varying levels of renewable penetration and mobility electrification. Results highlight critical thresholds where EV deployment begins to strain the energy system and identify optimal strategies for infrastructure deployment, load shifting, and energy storage use. The analysis further quantifies the CO₂ mitigation potential and economic impact of various policy instruments, including carbon pricing, V2G incentives, and renewable energy mandates. This study provides data-driven insights for policymakers, grid operators, and urban planners to ensure that mobility electrification contributes effectively to Italy’s climate commitments while maintaining system reliability and economic efficiency. The modeling approach is adaptable to other EU member states seeking to bridge the gap between transportation decarbonization and energy system stability.

Keywords: Energy System Modeling, Electric Vehicles, Climate-Neutral Transport, Eu 2030, Fit for 55, Times Model, Optimization, Italy, Bess, Co₂ Mitigation