HomeAbstract of 6th-ccgconfAssessing the Effect of Spatial Resolution on the Development of Future Intensity-duration-frequency Curves: a Multi-model Gcm-rcm Ensemble Approach for the Cordex-ca Central America Domain

Assessing the Effect of Spatial Resolution on the Development of Future Intensity-duration-frequency Curves: a Multi-model Gcm-rcm Ensemble Approach for the Cordex-ca Central America Domain

  • Nov 19, 2025
  • Posted by:
  • Category: Abstract of 6th-ccgconf
No Comments


Abstract Book of the 6th World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming

Year: 2025

[PDF]

Assessing the Effect of Spatial Resolution on the Development of Future Intensity-duration-frequency Curves: a Multi-model Gcm-rcm Ensemble Approach for the Cordex-ca Central America Domain

Maikel Mendez, Jose-Andres Araya-Obando

ABSTRACT:

This study assesses the added value of fine-scale Regional Climate Models (RCMs) in generating future intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves relative to coarser spatial resolutions. A 9-member 0.22° and a 10-member 0.44° multi-model ensembles (MMEs) from the CORDEX-CA Central America domain under RCP 8.5 were used to represent future daily precipitation. Detrended quantile mapping (DQM) was used to adjust daily precipitation biases between MMEs simulations and observations from the SJO international airport in Costa Rica during the baseline period 1971-2020. Equidistant quantile-matching (EDQM) temporal disaggregation was applied to obtain sub-daily annual maximum precipitation series (AMPs) based on daily totals. AMPs extreme value analysis (EVA) was performed using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution. Despite substantial ensemble-spreads in heavy precipitation for both MMEs, most RCMs agree on the sign of future change, suggesting a general increase in precipitation intensity. The reduced biases suggest that the finer 0.22° gridded simulations provide improved precipitation patterns and intensities compared to the 0.44° ensemble-mean. The added value is primarily attributed to the better representation of orography of the 0.22° MME, and the ability to capture larger-scale convective processes using resolved-scale dynamics involving several RCMs. Nevertheless, a clear beneficial effect is not always evident in terms of individual models, as the performance of various ensemble members often encompasses GCM-RCMs from both spatial resolutions.

Keywords: Bias Correction (BC), Climate Change (CC), Cordex, Detrended Quantile Mapping (DQM), Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF)