Fragmented Vision: Western Intelligence Realignment and The Emerging Contest for Surveillance Dominance

Abstract Book of the 3rd World Conference on Security Studies

Year: 2026

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Fragmented Vision: Western Intelligence Realignment and The Emerging Contest for Surveillance Dominance

Irina Tsukerman

ABSTRACT:

Western intelligence cooperation is entering a period of structural fragmentation as the Five Eyes alliance faces unprecedented internal and external pressures. The Trump administration’s push for sovereign control over intelligence priorities has eroded the automatic trust that once underpinned transatlantic coordination, while China’s expanding penetration of Western communications infrastructure has revealed vulnerabilities in surveillance networks once considered secure. European powers such as France and Germany are now developing semi-autonomous intelligence frameworks focused on regional surveillance and counterespionage, attempting to insulate themselves from both U.S. political volatility and foreign infiltration. Yet this decentralization has produced a patchwork system lacking the cohesive oversight and standardization that defined the Cold War-era intelligence order. Adversaries can exploit these fractures by infiltrating weaker partners, manipulating asymmetrical data-sharing arrangements, and fueling mistrust between allied services. In this shifting environment, new blocs are emerging: a core U.S.–U.K.–Canada axis maintaining advanced signals-intelligence capabilities and a continental European cluster led by France and Germany seeking greater autonomy in surveillance and information analysis. Smaller European and Indo-Pacific states are aligning tactically with either camp based on security dependence or technological capacity. While these realignments may provide short-term resilience, they also risk duplicating functions and creating parallel intelligence silos vulnerable to cyber intrusion and political manipulation. The erosion of unified oversight, shared verification, and institutional trust makes the Western surveillance order more porous than at any time since 1945, transforming intelligence cooperation from a cohesive shield into a contested arena of influence and strategic vulnerability.

Keywords: Collective Security; Communications Infrastructure; Counterespionage; Intelligence; Surveillance