Evaluation of Regional Climate Model Performance in Simulating Precipitation Drought under Climate Scenario RCP45 and RCP85 over Thailand

Proceedings of The 3rd World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming

Year: 2023

DOI:

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Evaluation of Regional Climate Model Performance in Simulating Precipitation Drought under Climate Scenario RCP45 and RCP85 over Thailand

Pramet Kaewmesri

ABSTRACT: 

Thailand has been facing a severe drought challenges. The issue is crucial to be analyzed and examined derived phenomena under a specific condition relating to climate change. This research focuses on assessing the performance of the Regional Climate Model (RegCM). The model is flexible, portable, and can be applied to any region of the world, with the development of a new physic scheme and a non-hydrostatic dynamic model. The initial condition used The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and predicted future precipitation over Thailand for the reference period 1991 – 2015 compared to precipitation observation data. The projection precipitation estimation is under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with the period in the future; near future 2015 – 2030 and mid-future 2031 – 2050. For drought index development, the SPI algorithm will be applied. Then, the results will deliver a warning system for reporting severe drought, which adversely affects agriculture dimensions in Thailand.

keywords: Regional Climate Model, SPI, Thailand, RCP4.5, RCP8.5