HomeAbstract of 11th-imeconfUnlocking Nigeria’s $3.9B Agricultural Export Potential: Sequencing Structural Reforms and Data-Driven Strategies for SME Competitiveness (2024-2026)

Unlocking Nigeria’s $3.9B Agricultural Export Potential: Sequencing Structural Reforms and Data-Driven Strategies for SME Competitiveness (2024-2026)

  • Mar 26, 2026
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Abstract Book of the 11th International Conference on Research in Management and Economics

Year: 2026

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Unlocking Nigeria's $3.9B Agricultural Export Potential: Sequencing Structural Reforms and Data-Driven Strategies for SME Competitiveness (2024-2026)

Mercy Ajifa Samson

ABSTRACT:

Nigeria’s non-oil exports reached $6.1 billion in 2025, yet the International Trade Centre estimates $3–3.9 billion in unrealized export potential, particularly in cocoa, cashew, and urea. Despite growing emphasis on data-driven export strategies, structural constraints including logistics bottlenecks, infrastructure deficits, compliance costs, and finance gaps may represent the primary binding constraint.
This paper examines whether Nigeria’s agricultural export underperformance is primarily driven by structural constraints such as logistics bottlenecks, port delays, compliance costs, and finance gaps or by SME capability limitations, including limited use of trade intelligence tools. The empirical strategy combines descriptive benchmarking using official trade and logistics indicators, a firm-level survey adapted from the World Bank Enterprise Surveys, and an econometric specification testing interaction effects between structural constraints and data capability. Comparative evidence from Ghana and Vietnam is used to inform reform sequencing logic.
Preliminary findings suggest that structural constraints exhibit a stronger negative association with export intensity than SME data capability alone. However, data capability significantly enhances export performance when logistics and compliance barriers are reduced. These results support a sequenced reform strategy prioritizing trade facilitation and logistics improvements before scaling advanced SME analytics programs under the Africa Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA).
These findings contribute to the debate on export promotion under AfCFTA by clarifying the conditions under which SME capability investments generate measurable returns.

Keywords: AfCFTA; Data-driven; Export Potential; Logistics performance; Trade Facilitation; Value Chains.





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