NATO’s Deterrence Strategy in the Baltic Sea

Abstract Book of the 10th World Conference on Social Sciences

Year: 2026

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NATO’s Deterrence Strategy in the Baltic Sea

Dr. Diogo Filipe Jorge de Azevedo da Cunha Rodrigues

ABSTRACT:

This paper analyses NATO’s deterrent posture in the Baltic Sea amid the renewed Russian challenge to European security following the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. It examines how NATO’s deterrence strategy functions in the Baltic region and evaluates its contribution to regional stability. The study focuses on the geostrategic importance of the Baltic Sea, Russia’s strategic behaviour, and the initiatives adopted by the Alliance to strengthen defence and deterrence. Deterrence is understood as a strategic practice aimed at influencing an adversary’s decision-making. Drawing on classical deterrence theory and contemporary International Relations scholarship, the paper argues that effective deterrence depends not only on military capabilities but also on credibility, signalling, and perceptions of political resolve. The methodology combines strategic analysis with a qualitative review of NATO policies, official documents, and regional security developments. Russia’s geopolitical outlook remains shaped by geographical constraints and its historical pursuit of access to warm-water ports. This perspective continues to inform Moscow’s actions, as seen in the annexation of Crimea and increased military and hybrid activities in the Baltic Sea region. NATO’s response includes the Enhanced Forward Presence battlegroups in the Baltic States, the Baltic Air Policing mission, and standing maritime forces. The accession of Finland and Sweden has further transformed the strategic environment, enhancing NATO’s operational depth and regional cohesion. The paper concludes that NATO’s deterrence strategy has helped prevent large-scale escalation, confining confrontation primarily to hybrid domains, and contributes to debates on alliance strategy, regional security, and managing great power rivalry.

Keywords: Baltic sea. Deterrence, NATO, power, Russia