Proceedings of the 8th International Conference on Applied Research in Business, Management and Economics
Year: 2025
DOI:
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New Oil Frontiers: Russia, Shadow Fleet and the Global Economy
A. García-Amate , L. Molero-González
ABSTRACT:
With over 60% of global energy consumption driven by oil and gas, fossil fuels continue to shape the international geopolitical landscape. This research project, in its early stages, aims to explore the complexities of the global maritime crude oil and derivatives market, with a focus on key geopolitical conflicts impacting the sector.
The first section provides an overview of international oil trade, highlighting major players, trade volumes, key routes, and supply-demand dynamics. The second section examines Russia’s pivotal role in crude oil trade, analyzing how the invasion of Ukraine and resulting sanctions have disrupted traditional trade patterns. The study emphasizes the emergence of the “Shadow Fleet,” unofficial and often clandestine shipping networks facilitating the transport of sanctioned oil to global markets. These vessels, while currently operating legally, raise critical concerns about transparency, sanctions enforcement, and potential environmental disasters. Their use has rendered sanctions against Russia largely ineffective and poses a severe climate threat.
Using LSEG Trade Flows, the project analyzes over 500,000 international movements of crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and petroleum derivatives between 2015 and the present. Graph network analysis is employed to map global interactions and trade flows. For Russian exports, detailed charts and tables are used to capture critical trade characteristics.
This ongoing research aims to shed light on the evolving dynamics of the global oil market and serve as a foundation for future debates and studies.
keywords: Oil and Gas, Geopolitics, Russia War, Sanctions, Seaborne oil