Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Management, Economics and Finance
Year: 2023
DOI: https://www.doi.org/10.33422/7th.icmef.2023.11.110
[PDF]
Research on Energy Consumption of China’s Jiangsu Province Based on Gray System Theory
Chu Yanfeng, Zhang Huijie
ABSTRACT:
The total energy consumption data of China’s Jiangsu Province from 2016 to 2022 are selected, and the GM(Grey Model)(1,1) in grey system theory is applied to forecast the total energy consumption of Jiangsu Province from 2023 to 2027. It is predicted that the energy consumption of China’s Jiangsu Province will be a continuous growth tendency during 2023-2027.The total energy consumption of Jiangsu Province will be 403.96 million tons of standard coal in 2027, and the average annual growth rate is still growing. The grey relation analysis is conducted to examine the relationship between total energy consumption and factors such as GDP (Gross Domestic Product), industrial output value, total population, and disposable income per capita of residents in Jiangsu Province. The total population has the largest correlation with the total energy consumption, and the correlation between industrial output value, per capita disposable income of residents, and GDP (Gross Domestic Product) with energy consumption is the second, with no significant difference in correlation among them. Finally, based on the prediction results of GM(1,1) and the grey relation analysis results, this paper gives a basis of energy consumption policies in Jiangsu Province and offers corresponding suggestions to achieve the goals of energy conservation and sustainable energy using in future.
keywords: GM (1,1) model, energy consumption, grey prediction, grey relation