Abstract Book of the 5th World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming
Year: 2025
DOI:
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Coastal-Inland Divergence: Circular Causation and Economic Vulnerability in Low-Elevation Coastal Zones of India
Pavithra B, Tarak Nath Mazumder
ABSTRACT:
Coastal settlements worldwide, including those in India, inherently provide a great stratum for economic boom but are often coupled with heightened environmental risks. The coastal-inland divergence observed in the development of Indian coastal settlements is investigated by focusing on: 1. How do the economic, demographic, and infrastructural trajectories of coastal and inland regions differ, and how do Geographical Vulnerabilities such as coastal erosion, cyclones, storm surges, and sea-level rise (SLR) in Low Elevation Coastal Zones (LECZ) influence these trajectories? 2. What are the economic and environmental trade-offs involved in relocating or adapting infrastructure to reduce the exposure of Economic Assets in LECZs? This paper examines the circular causation between economic growth, population dynamics, infrastructure expansion, and environmental risks, where one factor reinforces the next. This circularity is critical for identifying high-risk, highreward clusters and applying risk minimization models through Counterfactual Infrastructure Planning. The analysis is structured around the construction of a Coastal-Inland Urbanization Growth Trajectory Index, combining population, GDP, Secondary and tertiary sector productions, employment, population growth, and infrastructural variables to identify the urbanization patterns and highlight types of opportunities provided by coastal urban production regions. Through Spatial correlation, these quantitative ranking values are combined with linear weighting schemes to derive distinct clusters of urban coastal regions spatially, where each cluster embodies unique economic opportunity type, revealing distinct differences even within coastal districts. The vulnerability assessment overlay quantifies the exposure of economic assets and infrastructure to geographical hazards, assessing how risks undermine these opportunities, as highlighted by McGranahan et al. (2007) in their study on LECZ vulnerabilities. Following this, a cluster analysis identifies regions where growth and risks intersect. The paper further addresses these vulnerabilities by simulating counterfactual scenarios that explore alternative policies, infrastructure locations, and Inland Population shifts by reducing hazard exposure while maximizing economic benefits.
keywords: Coastal Settlement, Urbanization, Vulnerability Assessment, Counterfactual Planning