- Mar 9, 2023
- Posted by: admin
- Category: Abstract of 3rd-ccgconf
Proceedings of The 3rd World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming
Quantifying variations in reservoir projections: Uncertainty assessment in reservoir indices under RCP8.5 scenario
Umut Kirdemir, Okan Fistikoglu and Umut Okkan
Use of various tools such as multiple general circulation models (GCMs), hydrological models (HMs), downscaling techniques, etc. may induce variations in climate change projections. Featuring this uncertainty issue becomes important for relevant authorities who are involved in climate change impact studies, adaptation, and mitigation. Thus, the uncertainty analysis in climate change projections for water resources such as dams has importance in reservoir operations as well. Hence, in this study, an uncertainty analysis with respect to climate change was tried to be carried out for reservoir performance indices of a prominent dam which is located in Turkey. Eleven GCMs of CMIP5 datasets for the RCP8.5 scenario and five hydrological models were performed to get the future projections of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow. In the upshot, reservoir projections were made and the sources of uncertainty in reservoir performance indices were quantified. According to the results, the negative effects of climate change for the RCP8.5 scenario are estimated as a decrease of precipitation and streamflow and an increase of temperature. In uncertainty analysis of reservoir performance indices, it was obtained that in several indices depending on high streamflow conditions such as time-based reliability or resiliency, most of the uncertainty was originated in GCMs, however, in indices such as vulnerability, which is based on the severity of water deficit in related time, the HMs uncertainty has the major fraction.
keywords: downscaling, hydrological modelling, reservoir operation, uncertainty analysis