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Temporal Dynamics of Loneliness Inequalities in Long-Term Care in New Zealand

  • Jun 10, 2026
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Abstract Book of the 4th Global Conference on Aging and Gerontology

Year: 2026

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Temporal Dynamics of Loneliness Inequalities in Long-Term Care in New Zealand

Bill Li

ABSTRACT:

Loneliness in long-term care (LTC) populations is a critical determinant of mental and physical health, yet little is known about how demographic and regional disparities in loneliness change over time. This study examined patterns of loneliness inequalities in age, gender, ethnicity, and District Health Board (DHB) across time. We analysed 573,090 interRAI Long-Term Care Facility (LTCF) assessments conducted between October 2015 and March 2025. Repeated six-month cross-sections were constructed from quarterly data, and multivariable logistic regression models were fitted for each cross-section to estimate adjusted odds ratios (aORs) for loneliness. A Bonferroni-adjusted significance threshold (p < 0.00263) was applied. Females and residents aged 65-74 and 75-84 generally showed significantly higher odds of loneliness compared with males and those aged 85+, although the significance of this association fluctuated, with age becoming a less significant predictor in recent cross-sections. Isolated cross-sections also indicated higher loneliness odds among Asian and Pacific Peoples residents as compared with Europeans, while Māori residents demonstrated lower loneliness in two cross-sections. Regional heterogeneity was pronounced, with effect sizes varying more widely as compared to demographic factors. Demographic and regional inequalities in loneliness among LTC residents in New Zealand vary over time in both magnitude and statistical significance. These findings highlight the importance of temporal context when interpreting disparities and suggest that reliance on single cross-sectional analyses may obscure changing risk profiles. Future research should investigate the mechanisms underlying observed temporal shifts and prioritize repeated cross-sectional or longitudinal designs.

Keywords: Demographics; health equity; loneliness; long-term care; New Zealand