The Importance of Forecasting in Supply Chain Management

Abstract Book of the 14th International Conference on Opportunities and Challenges in Management, Economics and Accounting

Year: 2026

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The Importance of Forecasting in Supply Chain Management

Simon Gelashvili, Giorgi Mikeladze

ABSTRACT:

The article examines one of the key conditions for making effective management decisions in today’s turbulent business environment: the availability of scientifically grounded forecasts. It demonstrates that without reliable forecasting, it is nearly impossible to make optimal decisions across all links of the supply chain. In general, the forecasting process primarily involves collecting an adequate volume of statistical data and conducting expert evaluation, identifying the significant factors that influence the projected event and drive its changes, selecting and assessing appropriate models and methods, calculating forecasts, and determining their degree of reliability. Together, these steps ensure the development of well-grounded forecasts, which form the basis for rational decision making in managing all stages of production, supply, and sales. Therefore, the aim of the paper is to identify the role and significance of forecasting in the supply chain using both qualitative and quantitative methods. In the research process, relevant publications from various countries on the topic of the article were reviewed and utilized. The analysis revealed that collaboration between industry and consumers – along with the data generated through such interaction and through consumer marketing research – plays a major role in forecasting across all links of the supply chain. Using statistical methods and modern computer software, appropriate forecasting models of varying complexity are developed based on the processing and analysis of the collected data, and specific forecasts are produced. It is advisable for managers at all stages of the production, supply, and sales chain to participate in the forecasting process, as this increases their confidence in the forecasts prepared by specialists. Such involvement reduces the risk of irrational managerial decisions, which is essential for the effective functioning of the entire production, supply, and sales chain.

Keywords: Business Process; Customer Research; Collaborative Forecasting; Mutual Information; Rational Decision