Shockproof Tech Trade? Evidence from the US, China, and the EU

Abstract Book of the 8th International Conference on Future of Business, Management and Economics

Year: 2026

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Shockproof Tech Trade? Evidence from the US, China, and the EU

Ewa Cieslik, Anna Zamojska

ABSTRACT:

This paper investigates whether, and through which channels, uncertainty shocks reduce technology-trade performance across technology categories and whether these effects differ by economy and time horizon. Focusing on the US, China, and the EU over 1998–2024, we estimate an annual panel VAR with exogenous shocks for eight technology sectors, using two complementary trade outcomes: the export-to-import ratio (EI) and revealed comparative advantage (RCA). Uncertainty is proxied by global supply-chain pressure, trade policy uncertainty, and US-China geopolitical tensions. Results indicate dominant persistence and mean reversion in EI and RCA, with generally weak EI–RCA cross-transmission. Uncertainty effects are heterogeneous: operational shocks most consistently weaken trade performance in strategic-GVC sectors, whereas trade policy and geopolitical uncertainties primarily shift relative specialization rather than uniformly compressing trade. Cross-economy patterns identify China as an exporter outlier and semiconductors as Europe’s key bottleneck, implying that resilience policies should be targeted by technology type and uncertainty dimension.

Keywords: Uncertainty; Technology Trade; Uncertainty Shocks; Panel VAR (PVARX)