Exploring the Impact of Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Evidence from North Darfur State – Sudan

Abstract Book of the 6th World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming

Year: 2025

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Exploring the Impact of Climate Risk on Agricultural Production: Evidence from North Darfur State – Sudan

Elamin Akoy

ABSTRACT:

Climate change poses a severe threat to agricultural production in North Darfur State, Sudan. Its impacts are complex and closely linked to ongoing socio-political instability and conflict over scarce resources. This paper examines the multifaceted effects of climate change risks on agricultural production in North Darfur from 2000 to 2024, highlighting the interplay between climate variability and ongoing conflict. Utilizing climate time series data, crop yield analysis, and a household food security survey, the study investigates the nexus between climate variability, conflict, and agricultural production. The results showed that, despite a recent increase in average annual rainfall, agricultural productivity remains low due to the irregular distribution of precipitation and the ongoing conflict. The analysis indicates that extreme and very dry years have occurred frequently over the past two decades, resulting in repeated crop failure, particularly for staple crops such as millet and sorghum. Notably, conflict has had a more severe negative impact on crop yield than rainfall variability alone, primarily through the displacement of farmers, disruption of agricultural activities, and destruction of infrastructure. The results also showed that internally displaced persons (IDPs) and female-headed households are disproportionately affected, often resorting to severe coping strategies such as reducing food consumption, selling assets, or migrating. In response to these challenges, some farmers have adopted adaptation measures, including the use of drought-resistant seeds and early-maturing crops. The study finds that climate risks significantly undermine agricultural production and exacerbate food insecurity in North Darfur. It recommends a multi-pronged response, including promoting climate-resilient agricultural practices.

Keywords: Conflict, Crop Failure, Crop Yield, Household, Precipitation