A case study variate analysis of low-income learner progression in South Africa’s high school system

9th World Conference on Future of Education

Year: 2025

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A case study variate analysis of low-income learner progression in South Africa’s high school system

Jemma Visser

ABSTRACT:

This study explores the determinants of academic progression among low-income learners within two contrasting South African educational contexts: Low-income (SQ13) and higher-income (SQ45) schools. Using data from the 2022 General Household Survey, the analysis applies factor analysis, multivariate regression, structural equation modelling, and machine learning to identify eight key latent constructs that characterise learners from socio-economically disadvantaged backgrounds. Namely, family structure, learner health, supported retention, food security, welfare income, sanitation, energy, and environmental conditions. Although both groups face similar challenges, the nature and impact of these factors differ significantly. Learners in lower-quintile schools benefit from greater institutional support and welfare access but often experience less stable home environments. Conversely, learners in higher-quintile schools tend to live in more stable households but receive limited institutional assistance. Consistently, regular school attendance, age-appropriate grade placement, school-provided meals, and welfare income are critical predictors of academic progression, though their relative importance varies by context. These findings were further validated through a case study of an independent high school, demonstrating that once foundational needs are met, higher-order factors such as paternal involvement, intrinsic motivation, and future-oriented optimism become increasingly influential. This led to the development of an educational hierarchy of needs model comprising five sequential levels: (1) attendance and grade placement, (2) nutrition, (3) financial stability, (4) family support, and (5) mental well-being. The model underscores the necessity of a bottom-up approach, wherein higher-level development is dependent on the satisfaction of foundational needs, offering a structured means to address persistent educational inequalities in South Africa.

Keywords: educational policy; hierarchy of needs; lower socio-economic; South Africa; statistical analysis