Power Dynamics and Security Dilemma: Untangling Complexities in the Black Sea Region

Abstract

This article delves into the security dilemma within the Black Sea region from Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 to the ongoing war in Ukraine. Using a qualitative methodology, the study combines empirical data from NATO military strategies, Russian hybrid warfare tactics, and the geopolitical dynamics of energy security with theoretical insights. Through a detailed examination of primary sources (e.g., NATO documents, Russian government statements) and secondary literature, the research reveals how NATO’s defensive actions—military exercises and strategic deployments—are perceived as offensive provocations by Russia, while Russia’s cyberattacks, disinformation, and energy leverage are seen as existential threats by NATO. The study shows that the evolving security dilemma in the Black Sea is no longer driven solely by military postures but is increasingly shaped by hybrid warfare and energy geopolitics, where economic and informational power have become central to strategic competition. This research offers a fresh perspective on the intersection of military strategy, hybrid tactics, and energy security in the Black Sea, providing new insights into how these factors intensify the security dilemma and reshape the region’s security architecture.