Micro-change as Macro-Catalysts: Non-linear Dynamics of Leadership Behaviour, Cultural Emergence, and System Outcomes in Adaptive Organisations

Abstract

The persistent failure of linear, plan-driven models to effect lasting organisational transformation necessitates a paradigm shift. Contemporary organisations, particularly in high-stakes environments such as healthcare, do not function as predictable machines but as Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS), in which change is inherently non-linear and emergent. This longitudinal, mixed-methods study investigates the central premise that micro-changes in leadership behaviour, such as subtle, sustained adjustments in daily practice, can act as a critical catalyst, precipitating significant and often discontinuous shifts in organisational culture and performance. Designed as a 24-month longitudinal mixed-methods study within a Malaysian healthcare organisation, this research will synthesise CAS theory, transformational leadership, and organisational culture theory to track the co-evolution of leadership and culture. A key methodological innovation will be the application of Cusp Catastrophe Modelling to formally test for threshold-based, non-linear transitions. Quantitative and qualitative data will be collected in parallel across four waves (Baseline, Month 8, Month 16, and Month 24) to map broad trends and probe lived experiences and mechanisms of change. The study is designed to address contemporary calls for rigour in microfoundations and in embedding research. The findings aim to advance theory by empirically modelling cultural emergence as a dynamic system and provide practitioners with a nuanced, evidence-based framework for fostering genuine adaptability in complex environments.