Spatial modeling of social expenditure in EU countries

Proceedings of The World Conference on Social Sciences and Humanities

Year: 2019


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Spatial modeling of social expenditure in EU countries

Monika Miśkiewicz-Nawrocka and Katarzyna Zeug-Żebro



The age structure of EU countries has changed significantly in recent years. These changes are mainly due to longer life expectancy, low fertility rates, and population migrations. Countries are trying to cope with the consequences of demographic changes by reforming the social care system, extending the retirement age, introducing additional social benefits promoting parenthood and supporting large families. Social security programs in EU countries are very diverse. The financial aspect plays an important role in social security systems. Social security is based on the redistribution of income between persons receiving remuneration from work and persons who, due to reaching retirement age, poor health, lack of employment or having many children receive social benefits. In view of the changing demographic situation, social security functions such as health care, pensions and benefits for large families require Member States to take immediate structural and financial change. In the study will carry out spatial analysis of social care system development  in the European Union  and will research the impact of social spending on the unemployment rate, household structure, birth rate or poverty level. In addition, the forecast of social expenditure in the EU will be designated. The use of spatial analysis will allow to determine the existing relations between the studied countries due to the level of development of the studied phenomenon. The analysis will be carried out on the basis of actual data from Eurostat.

Keywords: forecast of social expenditure, spatial analysis, spatial lag model, social security.