Proceedings of The International Conference on Future of Social Sciences
Effectiveness of Early Warning by International Organizations: Empirical Analysis on the United Nations Mission in South Sudan
How well can international organizations detect early warning signs of conflict escalation? Early warning system (EWS) is one of the core functions of the United Nations peacekeeping operations; however, despite its significance, the effectiveness of the system has not been empirically verified thus far. This research examines its effectiveness, focusing on the operational records of early warning activities by the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS). Through building a dataset and using survival analysis, this study quantitatively estimates the effect of EWS to the duration of battles to understand how the system works to prevent conflict escalation. Contrary to expectations, the statistical result shows that the duration of battles tends to be longer if the peacekeeping mission responds to battles during or shortly after the events.