Proceedings of The World Conference on Climate Change and Global Warming
An assessment of the correlation amongst of Fertilizer usage, Agricultural Nitrous Oxide and Methane emission on Food Production of Bangladesh
Ashique Mahmud, Md. Ataul Gani Osmani
Bangladesh is a middle-income country with a large population. Nevertheless, it has inadequate arable land for cultivation and faces environmental constrain during agricultural production. The excessive use of fertilizer in the cultivation process could harm food production alternatively affect the environment. This study, therefore, intended to identify different aspects of fertilizer consumption, methane emission, and nitrogen trioxide emission on the food production of Bangladesh. The study used secondary data from World Development Indicator from 1971 to 2008. The objective of this study is to create structural econometric modeling. Hence, it will identify the actual scenario of the following variables alternatively formulate effective policy. In the preliminary stage, this study conducted the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test and Phillips Perron test to analyze the presence of the unit root. The results of both procedures indicated that the variables are stationary at I(1). Therefore, it is theoretically sensible to run the cointegration test to evaluate whether there is any long-run association between variables or not. After testing the unit roots this study, moves forward to run the Johanson Co-integration test. The test result found no co-integrating in the model. The test result of the Johanson Co-integration test found that the optimum lag length is two and further opened up the door to run Vector Auto Regression. The Vector Auto Regression found Food Production Index as strongly endogenous. It also indicated that the one period lagged value of FPIBD has significant effect on the present value of FPIBD and can increase FPIBD by 93 percent. FCBD, AN2OBD, and ACH4BD, on the other hand, are highly exogenous and have only a little effect on the FPIBD. FPIBD’s two-period lag has a significant impact on FCBD, with a 238 percent rise in FCBD. Furthermore, the one-period lagged value of AN2OBD has a little effect on FCBD, increasing it by just 1%, and ceteris paribus, the AN2OBD is substantially impacted by its one-period lagged value. By its one-period delayed value, it suggests a 94 percent raise. As a response, the one-period lagged value of ACH4BD seems to have a substantial impact on the present value of ACH4BD, implying that the one-period lagged value of ACH4BD displays a 59 percent rise in the present value of ACH4BD. The following will help to formulate policies and also enrich literature in the particular field.
keywords: Food Production Index, Fertilizer Consumption, Methane emission from agricultural sector of Bangladesh, Nitrous Oxide Emission from agriculture sector, Vector Auto regression.